You know... the weather forecast is often brought up as the culprit..... however I believe the culprit is misinformation and lack of education.
So many people use a "public" weather forecast for location X assuming that it is valid for location Y.......Big mistakes here.
1. A public forecast is a PUBLIC forecast ... not a camping/canoeing/boating/fishing/marine forecast. The PUBLIC forecast for OTTAWA is a forecast and verified based on the data coming out of the Ottawa international airport.... NOT NEPEAN, NOT RICHMOND, NOT VARS, AND NOT ORLEANS
2. A forecast for location X does not mean its valid for location Y just because its the closest forecast location.
3. A forecast from Company x does not get the same data as a forecast from company Y.... so they are not all equal.
Basically what I am saying is;
1. Educate yourself on weather and its effects on lakes/waves etc, learn the local effects based on topography, water depth etc.
2. Get the forecast you want/need for the actual location you are going to.. and get it from a reliable source.
3. If your camping in the spring time and the forecast is calling for sunny and warm conditions ... That is simply a A FORECAST ... meaning.... THAT IS THE MOST LIKELY CONDITION TO OCCUR... IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT IS THE ONLY CONDITION THAT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR....
I will share a story I had on Nemeiben Lake in Northern Sask. at location 55 22 50N 105 26 41W.
I was staying at lodge with my family (wife and three kids) and we met another couple with two kids. We all got along and decided to venture out to a beach where we could have a dual family picnic.
The Weather forecast for the day (PUBLIC forecast) was for mainly sunny and winds increasing to south 20km/h by afternoon....... Knowing that this was a PUBLIC forecast and not a LAKE/MARINE forecast... I knew that the winds would be stronger over the lake likely by a factor of 50%. not to mention they were from the south which allowed for the waves to build-up down the length of the lake.. so I was expecting winds of 30KM/H over the lake which would create 3' waves where we were going.
We ventured out to the nice beach, no problems getting there, sunny conditions, not a cloud in the sky, winds were 10km from the south and waves were 1 ' at most. Had our picnic and were enjoying the day when I noticed the winds had increased to about 30km/h as I expected but a band a mid level cloud was also moving in from the south... the clouds were thin and high up so the clouds didn't pose a threat but the the clouds themselves indicated to me an area of instability on the atmosphere... as the clouds approached the winds began to gust and of course the waves got BIG... the other family got worried and wanted to leave NOW... I tried to convince them to wait until the band of cloud drifted by at which time the gusts would subside and the waves would decrease .... but who am I... just a dumb weather guy who knows nothing right... they went out in their 16' tinny with two kids.
I didn't want to risk my families life as I knew better, so I waited it out... 30 min later... the band of cloud moved past, the instability subsided as did the wind gusts and waves flattened out to a tolerable height.
I loaded the family into my boat started back to the lodge..... about 1/4 of the way... I come around a bend and I see the other family still bailing out their boat, the kids are crying and all four of them are drenched from head to toe... lucky to still be alive AND in the boat.... albeit "BARELY".
There are MANY lessons that can be learned here and with all these stories... the main lesson I think is EDUCATE yourself on weather forecasts, where they come from, where to get them(the proper one), How to interpret them and how to apply common sense in minimizing risk.
